ELAM: social mood in decline
According to McKenzie, the Taliban and the United States share a “common goal” of completing the current evacuation mission by August 31.
General Kenneth McKenzie United States Central Command
Do you find that reassuring? No criticism of the general of the navy implied. The presidential press secretary as I write announces that we do not trust the Taliban.
Over the past few weeks, we have seen that there is not enough positive social vibe to support the currently high stock prices. With the overcrowded conditions at Kabul airport, it was a perfect target for a suicide bomber. Even before the United States leaves on August 31, ISIS K is back. The idea was to deprive terrorists of an entire country from which to plan global chaos. This objective has disappeared. Hard to imagine that we will eliminate the terrorists because we are literally out of town by the Taliban deadline.
We thought oil prices were heading into the mid-1950s. But prices have reversed to the 1960s lows. As I write Thursday, oil has climbed 38 cents to $ 67.78. Energy stocks have hit recent highs. The weather forecast for Bell Apache has changed from 12:30 p.m. to 5:70 p.m.
Natural gas prices climbed 7.29% to $ 4.20 today. There is a huge demand in the Far East and that is a bonus for American gas producers.
The most reliable stock indicator is the New York Stock Exchange Anticipated Decline Line. It peaked at the end of June. It’s been awry ever since. The percentage of stocks above the 200-day MA in the S&P 500 has risen from 96% in April to 80% today. This indicates that the width is declining as new highs are seen in various indexes. This means that fewer stocks are supporting the rise.
All of this supports our idea that stock indexes will decline until seasonal weakness this fall.